THE PROBLEM OF MIGRATION IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS

УДК 314.7(477)

Дудник М.М., студент 4 курсу
ХНЕУ ім. С. Кузнеця

After five year-old turning events of November 2013 when modern Ukrainian society has solidly accepted the intention to be a part of the EU, which were followed by the deep political crisis, economic downturn and war from the one side, and the consolidation and development of civil society, the EU – Ukraine Association Agreement, free-visa regime, contrariwise, the question about country’s benefits and threats on its path to the EU still remains unanswered. But migration is nowadays a one of the most serious problems that in the long-run will harm the economy in general, and people in particular. According to the recent DESA report Ukraine has hit the TOP-5 countries with the most rapid pace of population decline, and, the United Nations estimates that, by 2050, the population of Ukraine can be reduced by 18% to 36.4 million people, and by 2100 – by 57 % to 28, 2 million people [5]. Minor births, increased mortality and mass migration are the main causes of the social crisis, which is likely to deepen.

The process which Ukraine is engaged in repeats the global trend of population movement: throughout the decades, the number of migrants looking for better life including fulfilling basic needs, social guaranties and security is growing from 174 million in 2000, 232 million in 2013, and 244 million in 2015 (UN data) [5]. In fact, the flows of migrants are directed towards developed economies (G20 countries in particular: Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Australia, Canadaand France, for instance), which host more than 66% of overall number of migrants worldwide.Another EU countries like those which have joined it since 2004 (Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia ) also do so, but their contribution to European migration processes is to fill with their own population those “labor market gaps” that arise in countries with a higher level of economic development. This is especially true in the UK, where the number of Poles is exceeding the amount of 1.02 million at the end of 2017 (data of the UK Office for National Statistics), comparing to the 94,000 in 2004 and 500,000 in 2008 [7]. The same law holds for Germany: in accordance with Destatis (the Federal Statistical Office of Germany), the quantity of Poles in that country estimated for 420,000 persons in 2013, 670,000 in 2014 and 866,855 in 2017 [1].

As Ukrainian migrants, Poles have the similar motivation: the salaries in the developed countries are higher along with the fact that it is becoming easier enough to get there for a work. Notwithstanding the promises of the government to increase wages to UAH 10,000 (€300), this sum still lags behind the others: the previous year it was €750 in Poland, €870 in the Czech Republic, €1,760 in Italy, €2,300 in Germany, and €2,500 in Ireland[6]. Moreover, an increase in wages doesn’t mean any social improvements (security in particular, the factor that causes the migration of high-qualified labor force) or the fight against corruption – the problem that decomposes Ukrainian society and inhibits its development.

At present time, according to the State Statistics Service data, approximately 5 million Ukrainians live and work abroad [3]. However, the real numbers are significantly different: a survey conducted by Rating sociological group reports that two-thirds of Ukrainians are working abroad illegally, and the biggest part of them is in Russia (over 3,3 mln) [4].This tendency from the Soviet times still remains due to several particular qualities like visa-free regime, the lack of a language barrier, and country’s economic domination in the region (we also taking into account some of migrants who have decided to move there in recent years due to the war). Nevertheless, the European integration has made several changes in this: according to Eurostat in 2013, 236,000 residence permits obtained in the EUcountries by Ukrainians for the first time, and 493,000 in 2015, 589,000 in 2016 which was about 18% of the total number of permits issued [2]. The regional structure of migration has also changed, and now significant parts of EU – migrants are inhabitants of the eastern part of the country who have exceeded the number of their compatriots from the western regions.

The age of Ukrainian migrants also reflects the difficultness of the situation occurred. In the interview with the Polish news agency Polska Agencja Prasowa Biznes Serhiy Nikolaichuk, the Director of the Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis of the National Bank stated: «The impact on potential GDP is rather high, especially given the fact that the most able-bodied citizens leave – a significant proportion of about 70% are men, with an age range of about 35% being immigrants under the age of 30, and this is a trend. Several years ago the number of young immigrants was much lower» [8].

It becomes apparent that Ukraine has to get ready for a shortage of labor resources. Every year in our country the share of the economically active population decreases. According to the State Statistics Service in 2018 with 42 million people make up almost 28% (11.7 million) of pensioners, another 26% (11 million) are economically inactive (according to the ILO classification, it is the population aged 15-70, which does not fall into the categories of “busy” or “unemployed”), about 7-10% (3-5 million) work abroad [3]. Only about 15 million (36%) of economically active people remain. However, many experts are convinced that the real population is less than stated in statistical reporting. Therefore, Ukraine has to solve two problems: 1) to learn to attract foreign immigrants; 2) learn to return Ukrainian emigrants.

The attraction of labor resources (in other words, immigrants) is a major challenge for local authorities in Ukraine. After all, if there is not an influx of labor resources, enterprises will shut down, which will lead to lower revenues to local budgets. As a result, an increase in the burden on infrastructure maintenance and pensioners. Accordingly, the risks associated with the security and enjoyment of life in the region are increasing, which only exacerbates emigration. But this challenge must be shared by the local authorities with the central one.

In turn, the issue of the returning of Ukrainian emigrants can not be solved in the short term, as migration is a cyclical process. No country in the world can do this in a short time, nor does any country with a market economy in the world restrict emigration. The experience of other countries shows that the basis of the policy of returning emigrants is the complex of financial-economic and organizational mechanisms (motivational programs). Their launch allows to increase significantly the flow of remittances and investments of migrants who left, and then they start to return to their homeland.

Under the financial and economic mechanisms and programs we understand the fruitful work of the authorities and the financial and banking sector. Among the key motivational products, it is possible to allocate placement of bonds among migrants and diaspora. Other countries are launching deposit and cumulative banking services: over the period of 1970-2010, about ten countries (including Turkey, India, Morocco) have attracted more than $100 billion. from their migrants to special deposit and savings accounts with local banks [4].

The group of tools stated also includes simplification of the registration and encouraging the development of new money transfer channels. The increase in the volume of transfers should be accompanied by the launching of credit, insurance, pension and mortgage programs aimed at protecting migrants while they are abroad. Secondly, thevery important direction is a creation of profile divisions in financial and banking organizations. All major international organizations have special funds for the development of projects in the field of migration and remittances and are ready to spend on productive purposes. Finally, a separate issue needs to be given to launching investment and customs-tax incentives. Countries are developing investment programs and lowering taxes for migrants who want to invest in their homeland. In India, for migrant investors, the income tax is twice as low; taxes on dividends and deposit income are absent.

Organizational mechanisms and programs also play a key role as they will stimulate the implementation of the above-mentioned economic mechanisms. For instance, it is necessary to create a Ministry for Migrants and Diaspora to develop a motivational policy for their reintegration into Ukraine. All in all, the role of these organisations is to maintain relationships with migrants and to inform all motivational programs for investing their savings and returning to their homeland.

In general Ukraine should prepare itself qualitatively for an increase in influx of immigrants, launching the best experience of other countries, aimed at legal, safe and effective immigration, which will accelerate the development of the Ukrainian economy. On the other hand, Ukraine should stimulate the returning of Ukrainian emigrants, but it is necessary to start a motivational program to increase their money transfers to their homeland. Taking into account all the difficulties of the Ukrainian economy, one can confidently say that solving the issue of mass migration requires a lot of efforts and can take place in the long run.